In a previous column on the state elections, this writer had wondered what could be the reaction of the Indian National Congress when the results, expected to be largely adverse, came in.
As it has turned out, the results are even more adverse than speculated then – Mamata Banerjee lost in West Bengal and the MK Stalin-led DMK in Tamil Nadu.
As generally expected, the Congress-led UDF triumphed big in Kerala, providing some solace. But the BJP’s victories in West Bengal and Assam are huge, and the momentum should carry it through in the general elections slated three years later, with serious consequences for the polity.
Unlike in 2013 when an NDTV survey had predicted a big defeat awaiting and still the then ruling Congress seemed to make light of it, this time round the party looks a little chastened, as one saw in the Kerala Chief Minister drama, though whether it is enough, whether the party will go the whole hog and do whatever is needed to stop the Hindutva juggernaut is a moot point.
Most commentators agree that eventually the ever affable VD Satheesan came to be the high command’s choice for Chief Minister, vanquishing the formidable KC Venugopal – supposedly closest to Rahul Gandhi – only because the Congress’s first family saw Satheesan was far more popular with the cadres in the state and it would be foolish to squander away a major victory by imposing someone simply because he had been a trustworthy factotum for long.
Whether this would mean a return of autonomous state leadership as in the pre-Indira-Gandhi days or even whether new ‘syndicates’ would bode well for a party that seems to be in virtually terminal decline are quite different issues altogether and certainly too early to predict.
If anything, the Congress’s antics in the neighbouring Tamil Nadu seem to indicate the leadership has not exactly become the wiser even by a long shot – it only seeks to cash in on any opportunity that presents itself, with little thought either for all possible future complications, and of course scarcely minding the ethics of it all and the consequent image carried to the people in general.
It was going to be a hung Assembly, the debutant Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerging the largest single party, but the Congress rushed in first to offer the support of its five MLAs, without even the basic minimum courtesy of consulting other allies of the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance.
Rahul Gandhi could loftily chide his partymen who were celebrating the fall of Mamata in West Bengal, forgetting the fact it was the BJP that was the victor, but he seemed blissfully oblivious of the fact that actor-turned-politician Vijay himself is an uncertain quantity and could always gang up with the saffronites if it so suited him. Or that it was Stalin who had rooted for him as PM well before most others and been a consistent ally right through.
The Congress solemnly declared that the alliance with the TVK was there for all times to come, as it were, from the local bodies to the Lok Sabha.
There were fantasy projections of how an alliance with the charismatic actor could work to its advantage in places like Andhra Pradesh where the party presents a pathetic picture, and thus enable it to make a credible bid for power in 2029. The spin doctors were delighted with the fall of Mamata, Stalin, and Kejriwal; they began to gloat that Rahul Gandhi was emerging the sole alternative to Narendra Modi.
Such a line of reasoning is partially true yes, but where does the Congress stand in the larger scheme of things? At the state level, the BJP has expanded its control from seven states in 2014 to 18 states today, often through alliances with regional parties. Along with its NDA partners, the BJP is in power in 21 of India’s 31 states and Union Territories, effectively ruling 72% of the country’s population, it has been pointed out.
Congress’s vote share has precipitously declined in many places, down to single digit in fact. Nothing has happened to dent Modi’s own popularity, despite the economic difficulties flowing from the Iran crisis. If anything, there is no sign whatsoever that the radicalisation of the Hindu voters in the Hindi belt is cooling down, so much so that Congress’s reasonably good show in 2024 could seem increasingly a thing of the past.
Akhilesh Yadav was put out by the Congress’s decision to cut its ties with the DMK abruptly and he criticised the move in strident terms – not that observers think much of a Samajwadi-Congress alliance either in the UP Assembly elections next year or in the parliamentary one to follow.
A hat trick for Yogi Adityanath is on the cards, and it should have its own fallout in the national elections to follow.
Mamata of course is making some noises over opposition unity, but how much would she care for the all-India scene unless she is projected as the opposition candidate for Prime Ministership? She single-handedly wrecked the India bloc in 2024 by squashing Nitish Kumar’s ambitions to become the convener of the bloc. In any case, her hold is confined to just one state.
Arvind Kejriwal himself is a pale shadow of his past self and is unlikely to electrify voters much, whether in Delhi or elsewhere.
Major states like Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra seem irretrievably lost. The party has put in little effort to get back on its feet in Modi’s home state of Gujarat despite widespread discontent.
Even in the south, where the party could be on relatively stronger grounds, Karnataka is becoming a big if, thanks to intense factional squabbles and the inability of the high command to mediate satisfactorily or assert itself.
So also if in the Puducherry enclave, the party won just one seat and where a former rebel N Rangaswamy was returned to power as part of the NDA, it was all a consequence of intense internal tussle and the inability of the high command to withstand pressure from local satraps, jealous of Rangaswamy’s popularity. He was forced out in 2008, never to return, but built his own small empire within that small territory.
It is in such circumstances that the Congress has burnt its bridges with the DMK. Now an enduring alliance with the TVK is predicated on the fragility of the current coalition.
But what if rebel AIADMK MLAs, at the moment numbering 25, manage to get around the anti-defection laws and either merge with the TVK or enter into a coalition? What would be the utility of the Congress or other smaller allies then?
Vijay’s decision not to attend Satheesan’s swearing-in in Kerala is yet another indication that it is premature to gloat that Rahul has sewed up the alliance firmly.
What with a solid majority, besides the prospect of the goodwill of the BJP, the TVK could even cut itself asunder, leaving the Congress in a miserable plight.
Rahul Gandhi thunders that while most other opposition parties could and would compromise with the BJP at some point or other, it is the Congress alone that can remain steadfast in its commitment to secularism and eventually defeat the forces of bigotry.
He can’t bring himself to admit that his party is in an unenviable position on this score, for if it abandons the minorities or its long-held core values – much of it diluted already though – what is the alternative it would be offering to voters?
With his janeu cosplay failing to yield much of a dividend, he might have wisely fallen back on the OBC-Dalit-minorities coalition to revive the Congress’s fortunes, but then the party has been terribly weakened and opposition equally terribly fractured.
If films like Dhurandhar become runaway hits, hate campaigns of Himanta Sarma find resonance, and even in such a supposedly enlightened state like West Bengal ‘ghuspetiyas’ come to be seen as a mortal danger, and constitutional institutions like the Election Commission and the Supreme Court promote or tacitly endorse the majoritarian agenda, what chance does secularism have to emerge triumphant?
If in a country like the US, with all its contorted history, values embedded in its constitution can be destroyed ruthlessly and the saner sections place their hopes essentially on economic difficulties and not on resurrecting lost idealism, in India it is going to be a long, long haul.
And for the endeavour to even start, all parties that stand by secularism and inclusive growth should come together and be more accommodative than ever, the Congress first and foremost.
Despite its willingness to come to grips with the ground realities as seen in Kerala now and a little in the 2024 general elections, the Congress seems to be content to live out in its own bubble, while the first family seems perplexed by the continuing transformation in the mindset of the voters and does not dare break free of self-serving advisors.
If only Kerala happens to be the beginning of a new era… well, if wishes were horses.
TN Gopalan is a senior journalist based in Chennai. Views expressed are the author’s own.