After a drop since the end of May, there has been a steady rise in COVID-19 cases over the last few weeks in Kerala. The trajectory of the pandemic in the state is expected to see a spike with an additional 4.75 lakh new COVID-19 cases by August 10, according to a new study. The projections for the time period between July 11 to August 10 were released by the Jeevan Rakshe project, an initiative of Proxima conducted with technical support from the Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI). The study suggests that the southern state is most likely to account for about 35-40% of India’s increase in the number of cases. Kerala is also estimated to record close to 4,300 COVID-related deaths. During the same period, it is estimated that India is likely to add about 1.25 million new cases and witness an additional death toll of around 32,000, the study said.

Additionally, the study notes that the anticipated third wave can be avoided if regulations and safety protocols are followed strictly at the state-level until at least 80% of the population is vaccinated against the virus. Since the onset of the global pandemic, nine out of the 10 monthly projections made by Jeevan Raksha have been accurate up to over 95%. During the period of June 11 to July 10, 98% of the predicted number of total positive cases were observed, with India recording over 30 million cases, while deaths were around the four lakh mark.

The indigenously developed projection model is being used to predict the estimated number of people likely to get infected and succumb to the coronavirus in a given period and geography. Over the last year, the algorithm has been used for all states and Union Territories of India, results of which are shared with stakeholders of COVID-19 management.