In 2026, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) delivered its best-ever Assembly election performance in Kerala by winning three seats — Nemom, Kazhakkoottam and Chathannoor. Statewide, the NDA won 24.66 lakh votes, up from 23.54 lakh in 2021. Its vote share nudged from 12.5% to 14.2%.
The increase was modest when compared with the stronger performances delivered by the alliance in recent elections. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the NDA had polled 16.68%. In the 2025 local body elections, it managed 14.6%. The 2026 Assembly result, at 14.2 %, fell well short of the party's hopes and expectations. It was nowhere near the 20% the party had set as its target. One reason is that their support base is likely spread too thin across most constituencies. TNM's constituency-level analysis shows that while the NDA's statewide vote share remained largely stagnant, it expanded its presence across much of Kerala, broadening its social and geographical base.
The NDA performed better in 103 of Kerala's 140 Assembly constituencies, though it recorded a decline in 37 seats, when compared to 2021. Several constituencies witnessed sharp double-digit swings in favour of the alliance. While their state-wide vote share remained largely stagnant, its influence spread into regions where it had previously struggled to establish a presence.
The figures show that the trajectory is consistent even if the pace is slow.
D Dhanuraj, chairman of the Kochi-based Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR), said the BJP could have performed even better had it not entered into an alliance with Twenty20.
"In constituencies like Thripunithura, the BJP might have secured at least 20,000 more votes than it eventually did. On the other hand, in places like Kunnathunad, Twenty20 may have had the upper hand had it not joined hands with the BJP. Many Twenty20 supporters drifted away after the party aligned with the NDA," he said.
The most dramatic rise was in Poonjar, where the NDA's vote tally surged from just 2,965 votes in 2021 to 36,172 in 2026, a gain of 33,207 votes. Kunnathunad witnessed a similar leap, with the party's vote count rising from around 7,000 to 40,221, an increase of 33,003 votes.
In Pala, the alliance added 24,435 votes, climbing from 10,869 to 35,305, while Guruvayur saw a remarkable increase of 22,653 votes, with the party's tally jumping from 6,295 to 28,947. Thalassery, where the NDA did not field a candidate in 2021, delivered 22,754 votes to the party this time.
Thiruvalla recorded a gain of 20,404 votes, taking their tally from 22,674 to 43,078, while Karunagappally saw an increase of 20,090 votes, from 12,031 to 32,121. Ottappalam registered a gain of 17,420 votes, with the BJP's tally rising from 25,056 to 42,476.
Varkala added 16,186 votes, increasing from 11,214 to 27,400, while Sulthan Bathery almost doubled its NDA vote base, rising from 15,462 votes in 2021 to 31,308 in 2026, a gain of 15,846 votes. Chelakkara too recorded a substantial increase of 13,241 votes, from 24,045 to 37,286.
The NDA also added more than 12,000 votes each in Nedumangad and Kundara, while Nattika and Kaipamangalam recorded increases of over 11,000 votes compared to the previous election.
According to Dhanuraj, the BJP has been relatively successful in consolidating support among the Ezhava community.
"The party's social engineering among Ezhavas, as well as Dalit and Scheduled Tribe communities, appears to have worked. That is one reason we have seen a surge in BJP votes in places such as Sulthan Bathery. Investing resources in building alliances such as the BDJS and creating inroads into the Ezhava community is a strategy the BJP has employed successfully in several other states," he said.
Dhanuraj argued that the BJP's long-term outreach through the BDJS has begun yielding results.
"The soft launch through the BDJS worked well. Of the BJP's three MLAs, two belong to the Ezhava community. Chathannur MLA BB Gopakumar was previously associated with the SNDP, and following his victory, messages have been circulating within the community highlighting that an SNDP leader has become an MLA. This could increase the BJP's acceptance among Ezhava voters," he said.
He believes the BJP may eventually reach a stage where it can engage directly with Ezhava voters without relying heavily on the BDJS.
The 2026 verdict has pushed the LDF to its lowest vote share (37.54) in 45 years. Since 1982, the front had never fallen below the 43.5 per cent mark, making this its weakest electoral performance in the modern era of Kerala politics.
A notable feature of the BJP's gains is that they often coincided with significant erosion in LDF support.
In Chelakkara, the CPI(M)-led front lost more than 7,000 votes while the BJP gained over 13,000. In Guruvayur, the LDF vote fell by around 11,000 as the BJP added more than 22,000 votes. Haripad saw the LDF lose nearly 14,000 votes even as the BJP gained more than 13,000.
In Karunagappally, the Congress lost over 11,000 votes and the CPI(M) more than 8,000, while the BJP added over 20,000 votes.
The trend was most striking in Thiruvalla, where the CPI(M) lost more than 20,155 votes while the BJP's tally rose by over 20,400, suggesting a near-direct transfer of votes. A similar pattern emerged in Varkala, where the CPI(M) lost more than 13,000 votes as the BJP gained over 16,000.
These shifts indicate that, despite the NDA's modest statewide performance, they were able to make deep inroads in a number of constituencies by attracting voters who had previously backed the Left, reshaping local political equations even where those gains did not translate into victories.
Dhanuraj also argued that the BJP's outreach has extended beyond the Ezhava community, which constitutes a significant section of Kerala's Hindu population.
"The party has also gained traction among coastal communities. In these regions, its social engineering has been aided by networks associated with the Amritanandamayi Math, particularly along the coastal belt stretching from Kollam to Ernakulam. The shift is visible in the voting patterns of districts such as Alappuzha. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's participation in the golden jubilee celebrations of the Akhila Kerala Dheevara Sabha in Kochi in March was also part of this broader outreach strategy," he said.
While electoral support in Kerala has traditionally oscillated between the LDF and the UDF, Dhanuraj believes votes that have shifted to the BJP may not easily return to either front.
"In previous elections, including those in 2016 and 2021, votes largely moved between the LDF and the UDF. But votes that have now shifted to the BJP may not return so easily. Since Ezhava votes are a crucial factor, the LDF may find it difficult to regain that support unless it can project a strong Ezhava leader after Pinarayi Vijayan. The UDF faces a similar challenge. At the very least, without a strong Ezhava leadership presence in the Congress organisation, it will be difficult for it to attract those voters back," Dhanuraj said.
Together, the BDJS and Twenty20, the two major NDA allies polled nearly six lakh votes and contributed 2.75 percentage points to the alliance tally.
The BDJS, which contested 22 seats, secured 2.89 lakh votes and a 1.34 per cent vote share, improving on its roughly 1 per cent share in 2021, though still below its peak performance of around 4 per cent in 2016.
Twenty20, contesting 19 seats, won 3.04 lakh votes and a 1.41 per cent vote share, with its strongest showing coming from Kunnathunad.
BJP leaders privately acknowledge that while expanding the NDA through alliance partners helped widen the coalition's reach, the strategy also required sacrificing seats. The BJP contested only 98 constituencies in 2026 compared to 115 in 2021, a factor the party cites for the stagnation in its standalone vote share.
The contrast was particularly visible in seats allotted to allies. In Thripunithura, where Twenty20 contested, the NDA vote share rose from 15.20 per cent in 2021 to 19.07 per cent, while in Kodungallur it declined from 18.94 per cent to 16.18 per cent.
The sharp rise in BJP votes in dozens of constituencies, particularly in areas that also witnessed significant declines in Left support, suggests that beneath the headline numbers, the political map may be undergoing a gradual but important shift. The question for the next election cycle is whether this broad but shallow spread can be converted into deep enough leads in more constituencies to produce a significantly larger seat haul.