In the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections, exit polls conducted by various agencies indicate a strong performance by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Karnataka, close to its clean sweep in the 2019 general elections. Most exit polls predict above 20 seats for the BJP, while the Congress is not expected to cross single digits.
These predictions, if they come true, will be disappointing to the Congress as the party was banking on winning 10-12 seats in the state and increasing their tally. The Congress had won the Assembly elections in May 2023, and the party was anticipating that there would be vote consolidation in the Lok Sabha polls too. Pollsters, however, say that the JD(S) joining the BJP may have helped in bringing together the Lingayat and Vokkaliga votes.
According to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, the BJP is projected to win between 20 and 22 seats. The Janata Dal (Secular) [JD(S)] is expected to secure two or three seats, while the Indian National Congress (INC) might win three to five seats.
In 2019, the BJP won 25 seats and obtained the support of an independent MP, the Congress just one seat and the JD(S) one seat. The saffron party secured over half the vote share — 51% — while Congress obtained 32% and the JD(S) secured a 9% vote share.
The TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat exit poll forecasts a win for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in 20 out of the 28 seats in Karnataka, with Congress expected to secure the remaining seats.
According to the C-VOTER exit poll, the BJP is likely to win 23 to 25 seats out of the total 28 seats in Karnataka, while the Congress is likely to get three to five seats. The India TV-CNX exit poll also predicts the same numbers for the BJP, predicting a victory in 23 to 25 seats, while the Congress is again expected to win three to five seats.
The Jan Ki Baat exit poll projects that the NDA will secure between 21 and 23 seats. Meanwhile, the Congress is predicted to win between five to seven seats.
According to the India Today-Axis My India poll, the BJP is likely to lead with a substantial 48% vote share in Karnataka, while the Congress will follow close on its heels with 41%. JD(S) may get 7% of the vote, and other parties collectively at 3%.
Rahul Verma, Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, told India Today that multiple factors decided women’s votes such as safety and security, leadership, and religious connection. “If men voting is complicated, then women voting is also complicated,” he said.
Elections in Karnataka were held in two phases on April 26 and May 7. Of the state’s 28 Lok Sabha seats, five are reserved for Scheduled Castes and two for Scheduled Tribes. This election cycle saw a record voter turnout of 69.9%.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP achieved a landslide victory in Karnataka, winning 25 out of the 28 seats. The Congress and JD(S), which were in an alliance and ruled the state at the time, managed to win only one seat each.
A total of 474 candidates contested these elections in Karnataka. In the second phase, 247 candidates (226 men and 21 women) participated, while the third phase saw 227 candidates (206 men and 21 women) vying for seats.