Karnataka musical chairs and PK and SK strategies for 2024

Welcome to Powertrip, a newsletter exclusively curated for TNM subscribers by Dhanya Rajendran, Shabbir Ahmed, and Pooja Prasanna. In this issue, we talk about the promise that BJP made to Shettar which made him jump back to the party; why the Congress believes Prashant Kishor has a hand in the INDIA bloc’s trouble; and what strategist Sunil Kanugolu is up to..Inside TrackExclusive stories, for your eyes only.Karnataka hop, skip, and jumpThe Congress received a blow in Karnataka when Jagadish Shettar went back to the BJP. Shettar, a long-term RSS/BJP man, had joined the Congress just before the 2023 Assembly elections. While it’s not a blow electorally, it definitely is one in the narrative battle. What we know is that, other than a lot of assurances about how well he will be treated henceforth in the party, the BJP team negotiating with Shettar has offered him a Lok Sabha seat from Belagavi or from Haveri-Gadag. The Belagavi seat is held by Mangala Angadi, wife of MP Suresh Angadi who passed away in 2020. Shettar’s son Sankalp is married to Mangala and Suresh Angadi’s daughter Shraddha. Mangala has said she has no objection in vacating the seat to make way for Shettar, a BJP source said.And that’s not all. Both Congress and BJP sources say that even Laxman Savadi, who had jumped from the BJP at the same time as Shettar, is also likely to return to the BJP. The Congress has offered him a ministership to try to retain him while the BJP leaders talking to him have offered him a role in Delhi. The PK and SK of electionsThe mood in the Congress camp is not upbeat, predictably. Nitish is on the way out of the INDIA bloc; Sharad Pawar, Kejriwal, and Mamata can leave anytime soon, and the CPI(M) is continuing to insist that even if Mamata stays, they will not cooperate with her as they believe she is working at the BJP’s behest. In Nitish’s case, the Congress believes he was angry at not being made the INDIA convenor which prompted his walkout. In Mamata’s case, however, they suspect the hands of politician/political strategist Prashant Kishor or PK.PK maintains close ties with many leaders, including Mamata, and is believed to have advised her to go alone and not tie up with the Congress. Congress sources say PK is getting back at them for choosing poll strategist Sunil Kanugolu over him and making Sunil part of the Congress party’s core group. Also, PK’s influence does not end with Mamata and the TMC. He is also working with Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh, whose TDP is another party that has chosen to stay away from the INDIA bloc. While TDP has not started any talks with the BJP, even with the state and Lok Sabha elections just a few months away, it will gladly team up if the BJP agrees.Meanwhile, Sunil who was made a Cabinet rank minister after the Karnataka elections, will focus on one state during the 2024 polls – Haryana. Assembly elections are scheduled in Haryana this year and while the ruling BJP is expected to continue its alliance with the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), there has been friction between the Congress and the AAP over their alliance. Kejriwal is now expected to contest the polls without any coalition with the Congress.Sunil will not be in charge of Lok Sabha elections as a whole as he prefers to deal with one state at a time. He was in charge of Karnataka and Telangana, where the Congress was elected to power. He was also in charge of Madhya Pradesh, where the Congress did not manage to topple the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government. So who will be the strategy boss for the Congress in the Lok Sabha polls? It will be Jairam Ramesh and other leaders assisting him. The CPI(M) Lok Sabha strategyThe CPI(M) that won just one out of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala is busy strategising how to win more this time. Party sources say that one common thought is that only senior leaders should be fielded this time as winning more numbers is vital, which means young, new faces may not be accommodated. Though there have been suggestions that a few popular MLAs should be made to contest, that is unlikely to happen; an exception may be made in just one or two cases.The BJP’s focus meanwhile is on Thrissur, a seat from where actor Suresh Gopi will contest. That BJP is serious about winning Thrissur is evident from the fact that the Prime Minister has already visited the city twice in the new year.But the CPI(M) claims it isn’t worried. Why? That’s because their internal party surveys say that the Christian population that had moved towards the BJP slightly in the last election will change tack. Leaders of various churches have had a change of heart following the violence in Manipur, where they believe Christians came under attack and the government turned a blind eye.Suresh Gopi lost in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections but managed to get 28.19% of the votes. The CPI(M) says that this number does not matter; what is important is that he did not do spectacularly better in the Assembly polls of 2021. He contested from the Thrissur Town seat, which is where the BJP enjoys support, and still managed to get only 31.3% of the votes. Suresh Gopi is not expected to better this number and if the Christian population backs out, the BJP will not open their account in Kerala this time, believes CPI(M)..Zero HourA political story of public importance.In Ayodhya, firm linked to BJP leaders sold ecologically sensitive land to Adani – for a big profit.The deal shines a light on the politically connected beneficiaries of the land rush in the temple town – and farmers who lose out by selling their land cheap..PowermovesTop 5 political storiesHow BJP pulled off a coup in Karnataka with Jagadish Shettar’s returnHow a PFI worker convicted in Kerala terror case eluded NIA sleuths for 13 yearsBRS, Congress spar over Adani Group’s investments in TelanganaAyodhya temple inauguration: BJP alleges DMK banned special poojas, minister refutesSharmila takes charge as Andhra Congress chief, targets Jagan's govt