With the growing shadow of a Trump win looming over the world, markets around the world, including India, could in all probability go into a temporary shock mode.
Drawbacks
ET says that trade treaties inked by the US with India, will take a hit in the backdrop of Donald Trump’s avowed hawkish trade policy that would focus on keeping America first. He has time and again announced his intention to renegotiate all the current foreign trade deals the US has entered into.
Terming the HIB visa programme an unfair proposition, Trump looks forward to scrap the same. This will in turn ensure a cascading tumbledown on Indian IT stocks and IT companies with an extensive overseas presence.
Trump has also been very ambiguous about his stance on India, with him both patting India for its rapid developmental strides and at the same time threatening to erase India out of the American job market. That would only mean one thing for all those Indians looking to migrate to the US: harsher immigrant laws to deal with.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s grand plans to boost the ‘Make in India’ brand will hence have to take a backseat for the time being at least.
VCCircle is of the view that the unexpected Trump victory could see markets nosedive, especially Indian IT and pharmaceutical companies like Infosys, TCS, Glenmark Pharma and Lupin to name a few that have a significant revenue exposure in the US.
Also, the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade pact between the Pacific Rim countires that Trump supports and of which India is not a signatory, can negatively impact the Indian goods and services industry.
Perks
Trump’s pronounced dislike for China could work to India’s advantage, business-wise. Tagging China as a ‘currency manipulator’ and a top adversary, Trump is mulling over the option of imposing heavy tariffs on China, if trade agreements are not rewritten.
Though he is all for tough immigration laws, Trump does harp about luring Indian students and entrepreneurs to the US which could also see a tilt in its Asian policy in favour of India, at the cost of China.
Pakistan for Trump is a terrorist haven that needs to be reined in. This would probably translate into stronger Indo-US defence ties and better business options for India.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the 70-year old billionaire is also looking to capitalize on further building his brand in India with tie-ups with local real estate developers to launch the Trump Towers in Mumbai and Pune.