As Lok Sabha elections came to an end on Sunday, several pollsters came out with predictions for how the national and regional parties would fare. Seven exit polls predicted a win for the BJP in Karnataka while the Congress-JD(S) coalition in Karnataka was predicted to win a negligible number of seats.
India Today-My Axis poll predicted that the BJP would win 21-25 seats, and the Congress-JD(S) coalition would win 3-5 seats, with the Congress gaining 2-3 and JD(S) winning 1-2 seats respectively.
CNN News18-IPSOS poll predicted that the BJP would gain 20-23 seats, while the Congress-JD(S) coalition would bag 5-8 segments.
The Times Now-VMR poll has given the BJP a considerable headway in Karnataka with the party predicted to win 21 seats, followed by Congress winning 6 seats and the JD(S) winning 1 seat.
Republic-Jan Ki Baat survey has given the BJP 18-20 seats, the Congress-JD(S) coalition 10-7 seats and 1 seat for an independent. Republic-CVoter exit poll has predicted that the BJP, Congress-JD(S) coalition, and independent would win 18, 9 and 1 seats respectively.
NewsX-NETA exit poll has predicted a lead for the BJP with 15 seats, followed by Congress with 10 seats and the JD(S) with 2 seats and others 1.
Today’s Chanakya has allocated 23 plus or minus 4 seats for the BJP, 5 plus or minus 4 seats for the Congress-JD(S) alliance.
In 2014, the Congress had won 9 seats, while the BJP and JD(S) had bagged 17 and 2 seats respectively in the state.
The Congress in Karnataka has forged an alliance with the JD(S) ahead of the Lok Sabha elections this year. The Congress has chosen to contest from 20 constituencies, while the JD(S) has been offered eight segments. The two parties, considered arch rivals in Karnataka, had forged an alliance with the goal of defeating the BJP in the state.
While the pre-poll coalition was forged with the intention of consolidating votes, there is speculation that the chances of it translating into actual votes is minimal. This, after Congress and JD(S) cadre openly rebelled against the parties' diktat and worked against the coalition's candidates in several key constituencies.
This became doubly evident when a section of the Congress cadre had supported the opposition candidate Sumalatha in Mandya. Sumalatha, the wife of late Congress leader Ambareesh, is up against Karnataka CM HD Kumaraswamy’s son – Nikhil Kumaraswamy in Mandya. With the party workers unable to reconcile with each other due to the longstanding rivalry in the region, Congress cadre had refused to support Nikhil. Similarly, the Congress workers had refused to support former Prime Minister and JD(S) supremo HD Deve Gowda, who contested from the Tumakuru segment.
In retaliation, the JD(S) cadre refused to support Congress candidate CH Vijayashankar in the Mysuru-Kodagu, Kolar and Chikkaballapur segments. JD(S) MLA from Chamundeshwari GT Devegowda had in April, told the media that the JD(S) workers in Mysuru had voted for the BJP.
Faced with hostility at every turn, speculation is rife in political circles that the Congress and JD(S) coalition is unlikely to last after May 23 (counting of votes).