With just five more days to go for the bye-elections to five assembly constituencies in Kerala, political parties and their supporters have taken campaigning into top gear to make sure they cover every nook and corner of their respective constituencies. Vattiyoorkavu, Ernakulam, Aroor, Konni and Manjeshwaram constituencies will go to polls on October 21. Among these, the Ernakulam Assembly constituency, which holds the distinction of being the commercial hub of the state and a metro city, is being watched keenly by the public and political parties alike.
The Congress has fielded its district party chief and deputy mayor of Kochi Corporation TJ Vinod as the candidate from the Ernakulam constituency, which is a party citadel. The LDF is being represented by independent candidate Advocate Manu Roy (contesting on autorickshaw symbol), son of veteran journalist KM Roy. Meanwhile, the BJP, which is hoping to make inroads into the constituency, has given a seat to BJP Mandalam President CG Rajagopal.
The LDF, which has only won twice from the traditional Congress bastion of Ernakulam – that too through independent candidates since 1957, has now fielded a non-political candidate to try and wrest the seat from its rival party. How will Manu Roy, a relative newbie contesting the polls yet has strong social connections among the elite in Ernakulam, fare against TJ Vinod, a local Congress veteran of the constituency?
Prominent writer MK Sanoo and Left sympathiser Advocate Sebastian Paul are the independent candidates, who have won for the LDF from Ernakulam in the years gone by, in 1987 and 1998 respectively.
In a striking coincidence, Sebastian Paul had won in 1998 during a bye-poll that was held in circumstances similar to the present one. If in 1998, the MLA seat of the constituency was left vacant with Congress’s sitting MLA George Eden winning as MP from Ernakulam Lok Sabha constituency, this time the seat has fallen vacant due to his son Hibi Eden winning as MP in the recently held Lok Sabha elections.
Manu Roy with CM Pinarayi Vijayan and CPI(M) leader P Rajeev
The fight in Ernakulam, no doubt, is between district Congress chief TJ Vinod and independent candidate Manu Roy. But according to political observers, what kind of impact the LDF’s independent candidate will have in the constituency, is a matter of uncertainty.
“Besides, the fact that Ernakulam is a Congress citadel, TJ Vinod is one of the leaders who has wide acceptance among various factions within the party. Looking into Ernakulam’s history, it is clear that the candidate’s personal glamour or qualifications will not turn into votes here. How the political machinery delivers the goods is what works in Ernakulam,” a political veteran, who did not wish to be named, told TNM.
It may also be noted that during the recent Lok Sabha elections, the CPI(M) had fielded P Rajeev, one of the strongest leaders of the party in the district, against Congress’s dynamic Hibi Eden. Despite being the former CPI(M) district chief and also a former MP with a stellar record, Congress candidate Hibi outdid Rajeev by 1.7 lakh votes.
Not a cakewalk for Congress
Despite having an upper hand for being familiar among the people of the constituency, it is not going to be a cakewalk for the Congress this time. Congress party in the state is already embroiled in a controversy centred in Kochi – the Palarivattom flyover fiasco.
Though the flyover, which has been shut down after structural faults and cracks were found on it, is not located in the constituency limits, it has become a troublesome issue for the party. The flyover was built at a cost of Rs 48 crore during the tenure of the previous Congress-led UDF government. The then PWD (Public Works Department) Minister had also come under the scanner of Vigilance and Anti-Corruption Bureau (VACB) investigating the scam.
TJ Vinod with Hibi Eden
On a personal level, TJ Vinod will also be held to question on the developmental work of Kochi Corporation, as he is the Deputy Mayor of the local body. The Corporation, led by the UDF, is already facing criticism in various projects, including failure of the local body to implement an e-governance system and over improper disposal of the city’s garbage.
Past polls in Ernakulam
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Congress’s Hibi Eden, who was the sitting MLA of Ernakulam Assembly constituency, won by a margin of nearly 1.7 lakh votes. While he got a total of 4,91,263 votes, P Rajeev — an ace former parliamentarian and LDF candidate — got 3,22,110 votes. Alphons Kannanthanam, who was fielded by the BJP, garnered 1,37,749 votes.
In the last Assembly polls held in 2016, Hibi Eden got 57,819 votes and had a winning margin of 21,949 votes. M Anil Kumar, a CPI(M) leader, who contested against him, managed to get 35,870 votes. Meanwhile, BJP candidate NK Mohandas came a distant third with 14,878 votes.
Going back to the 2011 Assembly polls, in a notable similarity with the forthcoming poll, the LDF had fielded an independent candidate – advocate Sebastian Paul – and the NDA candidate was BJP’s CG Rajagopal, who will contest this time too. In that poll, too, Hibi Eden, who was Congress candidate, got a whopping 61.58% of the votes. While he won with 59,919 votes against his name, the independent candidate of LDF got 27,482 votes and the BJP managed just 6,362 votes.
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