The counting of votes is set to take place on May 23 and bookies are currently offering odds of 1 to 6 for Bengaluru Central PC Mohan. This means that for every Re 1, the stake offered is Rs 6. This translates to a take away of Rs 6. But for serious gamblers, “the take away is not in lakhs but in crores,” an industry source said.
The betting market for elections in Bengaluru is estimated to be worth around Rs 1,000 to Rs 1,500 crore, especially since prime real estate is being wagered.
“There are people who have bet acres of land and apartments they own. In return they are expecting to win more properties across the city. People have wagered properties in Bellandur, Mahadevapura, Avalahalli and Hosakerehalli. Most people are currently betting against Congress candidate Rizwan Arshad in Bengaluru. However, there are barely any people betting for the candidates in Bengaluru North and Bengaluru South in comparison,” the source said.
In Mandya, however, the betting has become a battle between fans of actors Yash and Darshan and the followers of Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy. Darshan and Yash have been campaigning for independent candidate Sumalatha Ambareesh, who is up against Nikhil Kumaraswamy, the Chief Minister's son.
The odds in Mandya are currently 10 to 11 for Nikhil Kumaraswamy, which means that for every Rs 10, Rs 11 is at stake. If Nikhil Kumaraswamy wins, then the take away would be Rs 21. The betting market in Mandya is estimated to be worth around Rs 200 crore with the odds favouring Nikhil.
“If Sumalatha wins, then the take away is more for those who bet against Nikhil. These are mostly fans of actors Yash and Darshan. People are not only betting on elections here but also betting on whether Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy, who is a prominent member of Sandalwood, would put an end to the acting careers of Yash and Darshan,” an industry source in Mandya told TNM.
Sources say that betting on elections is a way for cadre cutting across party lines to earn the money spent on electioneering.
“They expect to receive at least 30% of the election costs. However, people in Mandya are betting their farms and cattle in addition to placing monetary bets this time around. The stakes are high mostly due to the stardom surrounding the election campaign,” the source added.
The high stakes and the nature of the bets, however, bring one question to the fore – do the police manage to bust election betting rackets? And if they do, what happens to the accused?
The raids
Speaking to TNM, a senior police official with the Central Crime Branch says that election betting is rampant across Karnataka and no matter how many raids are conducted, new ring masters and bookies crop up, keeping the market alive.
“Election betting is definitely an organised crime. But there are numerous ringmasters and the number of bookies is twice as much. By the time one raid is conducted, two other rackets would have cropped up and it is very hard to crack down on them,” the police official says.
According to DCP South Annamalai, betting is so rampant in Bengaluru simply because there have rarely been any convictions in betting cases. Even if there are convictions, the punishment is so lenient that getting caught by the police is of little consequence to those running the rackets.
“Even if a conviction happens, which is very rare, the accused is fined with anywhere between Rs 500 or Rs 1,000 and let go. The punishment is not strict,” he added.
Why conviction rates are negligible in betting cases
Public Prosecutor Balan, who has practiced in Karnataka for 30 years, told TNM that the way in which police conduct raids is so flawed that their findings do not stand a chance in a court of law. This, he maintains is because the police do not have proper knowledge about the provisions in the Karnataka Police Act 1963, pertaining to betting.
“Gambling is a non-cognisable offense. In Karnataka, the raids on gambling dens are conducted by the Central Crime Branch, which firstly has no jurisdictional authority to do so. The jurisdictional police must obtain permission from the court before conducting these raids and this never happens. The police have no idea about what the law says and they are not trained properly, which is why the betting cases almost always end in acquittal,” Balan says.
He also says that the police do not investigate the cases properly after conducting the raids, which leads to the cases getting quashed in the court. “Their intention may be right but without proper knowledge of the law and adequate training, the cases fall flat in court just because of minor legalities. The inspector dictates the witness statements to the station writer and in most cases, the station writers end up writing elaborate stories without any facts to back the stories. These procedures must be corrected,” he added.