The Election Commission's announcement confirming bye-elections in 15 Assembly constituencies in Karnataka on October 21 has come as a nasty blow to the disqualified MLAs who were hopeful of contesting the bye-elections.
The resignations of the rebel MLAs, who were later disqualified, preceded the fall of the coalition government led by former Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy in July. Then Karnataka Speaker KR Ramesh Kumar disqualified as many as 17 rebel MLAs (including all 15 MLAs in constituencies where bye-elections were announced) till the end of the current Assembly term running from 2018 to 2023. This set the stage for the BJP to form the government in the state.
The disqualified leaders approached the Supreme Court to quash their disqualification but Justice MM Shantanagoudar, who was presiding over the case, recused himself earlier this week citing that he is from Karnataka and that his conscience is not permitting him to hear the case.
This means that the clock is ticking for the 15 disqualified MLAs who were hoping for a favourable verdict from the Supreme Court since they wanted to contest the bye-elections. The last date for parties to file nominations for the bye-elections is September 30, just nine days from now.
"I welcome the announcement of bye-elections but we are expecting a judgement from the court on Monday or Tuesday. We will discuss what we will do in the future based on the court's decision," former Mahalakshmi Layout MLA Gopalaiah told TNM. He added that the disqualified MLAs are ready to face the bye-elections. Similar views were expressed by disqualified MLAs MTB Nagaraj and Munirathna while speaking to the media after the announcement of the bye-elections.
The turn of events puts the BJP in a predicament while finalising candidates ahead of the bye-elections, as it had reportedly promised cabinet berths to a few of the rebel MLAs . The party is under pressure to win at least six of the 15 bye-elections. This is because the BJP presently has the support of 106 MLAs including independent MLA H Nagesh. The party will need to win six more seats to reach the majority mark (112) in the 222-member Assembly. The party is also yet to name a full-cabinet and sources say that the party is waiting to allot ministries to disqualified MLAs after they join the BJP and contest the bye-elections.
Party officials speaking to TNM said that this will help the party secure a majority in the full Assembly. "We welcome the elections. BJP is well prepared to contest in all 15 constituencies and win in the election. This gives a chance to win a majority number of seats in the full Assembly, which in turn will help us finalise the cabinet expansion", a BJP official told TNM.
When asked about the fate of the disqualified MLAs, the same official said, "The party will take a decision on the disqualified MLAs if they are allowed to contest and if the court gives them relief".
If the Supreme Court does not give them immediate relief, these former MLAs will not be able to contest elections.
The fate of the rebel MLAs makes little difference to the JD(S) and Congress' plans for the bye-elections. Leaders from both parties said that the timing of the elections has come as a surprise to them as they did not expect it to take place as early as October.
The JD(S) has made it clear that there will be no alliance between them for the bye-elections. This was confirmed by former Prime Minister and JD(S) patriarch HD Deve Gowda earlier this week and the message was reiterated by the party's official social media accounts on Saturday.
ಅಕ್ಟೋಬರ್ 21, 2019 ರಂದು ಕರ್ನಾಟಕದ 15 ವಿಧಾನಸಭಾ ಕ್ಷೇತ್ರಗಳಿಗೆ ಉಪಚುನಾವಣೆ ನಡೆಯಲಿದೆ ಎಂದು ಚುನಾವಣಾ ಆಯೋಗ ಘೋಷಿಸಿದೆ. ಎಲ್ಲಾ 15 ಕ್ಷೇತ್ರಗಳಲ್ಲಿಯೂ ಜೆಡಿಎಸ್ ಪಕ್ಷದ ಅಭ್ಯರ್ಥಿಗಳು ಸ್ಪರ್ಧಿಸಲಿದ್ದಾರೆ.
— Janata Dal Secular (@JanataDal_S) September 21, 2019
ಹೆಚ್.ಡಿ. ಕುಮಾರಸ್ವಾಮಿ ಅವರ ನೇತೃತ್ವದ ಬಹುಮತ ಸರ್ಕಾರವನ್ನು ವಾಮ ಮಾರ್ಗದಿಂದ ಕೆಡವಿದವರಿಗೆ ಜನತೆ ತಕ್ಕ ಪಾಠ ಕಲಿಸಲಿದ್ದಾರೆ.
HD Kumaraswamy said that the party is targeting to win the bye-elections in at least 8 of the 15 constituencies.
‘Teach them a lesson’
Congress leaders also expressed surprise over the timing of the bye-elections. "We did not expect that the bye-elections would happen so soon in October but we will be ready to fight it," said former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. He was speaking at an event organised in Hosakote where senior Congress leaders like Krishna Byre Gowda, KR Ramesh Kumar and Dinesh Gundu Rao were present.
The event was held in the same constituency where MTB Nagaraj, one of the richest politicians in the country, was elected in the 2018 Assembly Election on a Congress ticket. He, however, resigned from his position and became a rebel MLA in July despite repeated attempts by senior Congress leaders to make him stay in the party.
"This is not the house built by MTB Nagaraj in spite of what he thinks. People voted him because he contested as the Congress leader but he has cheated the party," Krishna Byre Gowda said speaking at the event.
"We do not know what will happen in court, but whoever contests from Hosakote will lose to Congress. (Former Speaker) Ramesh Kumar has decided according to the Constitution and this has taught a lesson to them (disqualified MLAs). If people also teach them a lesson, it will be a message to the country," Siddaramaiah added.
All three parties will now have to scramble to finalise candidates for the 15 constituencies where bye-elections will be held next month. While Congress and JD(S) leaders are confident that the bye-elections will spell the end of the short tenure of the BJP government in the state, the BJP is confident about securing the six seats needed for a majority in the Assembly.
The disqualified MLAs however are caught in abeyance needing an interim relief from the Supreme Court to allow them to contest the bye-elections.