As Telangana voted for its first Assembly election on Friday, several pollsters came out with their predictions for who will form the government in the state. Two of the five exit polls conducted by various agencies predict a win for the TRS in the state. Three others have predicted a hung Assembly situation – however, the numbers are within easy reach of the TRS to form the government in the state, with the AIMIM’s help.
The India Today-My Axis exit poll has predicted a massive victory for TRS in the state, with 79 to 91 seats in the 119 member Assembly, with the median at a comfortable 85 – 25 seats more than the halfway mark of 60. The poll has predicted a meagre 21 to 33 seats for the Congress-led Prajakutami, with a median of 27. The BJP has been projected to win between 1 and 3 seats. The poll has predicted a whopping 46% vote share for the TRS, 37% for the Congress+, 7% for the BJP, 3% for the AIMIM, and 7% for others.
The Republic TV-C-voter exit poll has predicted a hung Assembly in the state, with the TRS and the Congress-led Prajakutami being neck and neck. They’ve predicted between 48 and 60 seats (median 54) in the 119 member House, and between 47 and 59 seats for the Congress (median 53). The BJP has been projected to win between 1 and 11 seats.
The Republic TV-Jan ki baat survey has also predicted a hung Assembly situation in the state – As per the median numbers in the poll, TRS can form the government in the 119 member Assembly, provided it gets the support of either the BJP, or the MIM.
The poll has predicted that TRS will be the party with the highest number of seats, between 50 and 65, with a median of 58. For the Congress, the poll has predicted between 38 and 52 seats, with a median of 45; BJP has been projected to win between four and seven seats (median six), and the AIMIM has been projected to win between five and seven seats (median six). The polls has predicted between three and seven seats for others (median four).
The Jan ki baat poll has however predicted a higher vote share for the Congress-led Prajakutami in the state. While the TRS has been projected to get a vote share of 30.3%, the Prajakutami has been predicted to get a vote share of 38.7%. The BJP and MIM have been projected to win 9 and 3.5% vote share respectively.
A third exit poll – the iTV-NETA survey – has also predicted a hung Assembly in Telangana, with 57 seats for TRS, and 46 seats for the Congress-led alliance. The poll has predicted 6 seats for BJP, and 10 for others.
The Times Now-CNX exit poll has predicted a win for the TRS in the state, with 66 seats. The Congress-led Prajakutami has been projected to win 37 seats, while the BJP has been projected to win 7 seats. The poll has predicted 9 seats to others, including the MIM.
In the 2014 election, TRS won 63 seats in the state, the Congress won 21, the TDP 15, the BJP 5, and the BSP 2. However, there were several defections later on, and at the time the Assembly was dissolved on September 6, TRS had 90 MLAs, the Congress had 14, and the TDP, just 2.