Masks, gloves and digital campaigning will mark the byepoll for Sira, a nondescript and semi-arid Assembly constituency in Karnataka, located 122 km from Bengaluru in Tumakuru district, with the Election Commission (EC) expected to announce the poll dates anytime to the Bihar Assembly and 65 other byelections.
Even before the announcement of the poll dates, the three principal political parties in Karnataka have got into election mode, with the Congress being the first on the block by finalising its candidate. The BJP is scouting around for a candidate while the JD(S) is considering fielding either the son or wife of its party MLA B Sathyanarayana, whose death in August has necessitated the byepoll.
Sira’s byepoll will be a challenge not only to the political parties as the campaign has to be conducted under the new guidelines issued by the EC keeping in mind the pandemic, but also to the leaders of the three parties. The constituency has been represented either by the Congress or the JD(S) with the BJP being in third place in all polls for the past three decades.
What does the byepoll mean to BS Yediyurappa, DK Shivakumar and HD Kumaraswamy? Bolstered by the BJP’s victory in KR Pet in Mandya district, a Vokkaliga and JD(S) bastion, in the December 2019 byepolls, Chief Minister Yediyurappa has set his eyes on adding Sira to his kitty of new pockets. Under pressure from his own party men regarding the delay in the cabinet expansion and flak from the opposition in handling the COVID-19 crisis besides other issues, winning Sira is expected to silence his detractors for some time.
This will be the first election for DK Shivakumar as KPCC President, though in the past he has been put in charge of several byepolls and emerged victorious. The Congress has announced former Minister TB Jayachandra, who was defeated in the 2018 Assembly polls, as its candidate. For Shivakumar, who is preparing the ground for the next Assembly polls in the state and plans to stake claim for the CM’s post if the Congress gets a majority, Sira is the beginning. The gram panchayat polls, which are conducted on a non-party basis but with candidates being tacitly backed by all parties, are scheduled by the year end, with the BBMP polls expected next year.
DKS has put former KPCC President G Parameshwara, who represents Koratagere in Tumakuru district, in charge of the constituency. “We will focus on the BJP’s dismal performance on state issues. The BJP has made the non-filling of Madalur Lake in Sira an issue, when it was during Jayachandra’s time that the lake was filled up for the first time in history,” he said.
For the JD(S), Tumakuru is another district with a large Vokkaliga base. Former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda and his son, former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy, who have been trying to keep the JD(S) afloat, face another challenge in retaining Sira that they won in 2018. According to sources, while there is sympathy for the late MLA, Jayachandra also has it in adequate measure due to his defeat. Besides it will be a clash of two Vokkaliga leaders – Kumaraswamy and Shivakumar – both of who are trying to take over the Vokkaliga leadership in the state.
The BJP has already begun a door-to-door campaign under its district president SR Suresh Gowda. “We’re waiting for the JD(S) to announce its candidate and then we may field one from the backward classes if the JD(S) also goes in for a Vokkaliga candidate,” party sources said.
Why did the Congress lose in 2018? It was an intra-party rivalry between Jayachandra and former MLA KN Rajanna from adjoining Madhugiri constituency, who worked against each other in the polls. Rajanna was reportedly upset that Jayachandra did not help the former’s son to win the legislative council seat from the local authorities’ constituency and is said to have worked against both Jayachandra and his son Santosh Jayachandra who was fielded from Chikkanayakanahalli.
How does caste maths work? Since 2008, the Congress and JD(S) have fielded Jayachandra and Sathyanarayana, both Vokkaligas, as their candidates respectively with the former winning in 2008 and 2013. However, Sathyanarayana has been a constant figure since the Janata Parivar days in 1989 winning the seat thrice in the last 31 years.
Of the 2.12 lakh voters (figures from 2018), the Kunchitiga Vokkaligas (found in Tumakuru and Chitradurga districts) lead the numbers with 45,000 followed by the Scheduled Castes (left sect) with 30,000, Gollas 23,000, Minorities and Kurubas 18,000 each, backward classes with 16,000, besides others. According to Congress sources, if the Scheduled Castes (both left and right sects), backward classes and minority votes don’t split, the Congress prospects are good. JD(S) sources said while the party is expected to get majority of the Vokkaliga votes, which will also be taken by Jayachandra, a Kunchitiga Vokkaliga, it has to dive into the Congress vote banks if it is to retain the seat.
The BJP, being the party in power, has its own advantages by assuring the constituency’s development before the poll date is announced. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP is said to have got a majority of the Scheduled Caste (left) votes which made it possible for its candidate A Narayanaswamy to get elected from Chitradurga Lok Sabha constituency. Since Sira is an Assembly segment of Chitradurga Lok Sabha constituency, the party is expecting a repeat performance.
Naheed Ataulla is a journalist who has covered Karnataka politics for over two decades, and is a former Political Editor of The Times of India. Views expressed are the author’s own.