The southwest monsoon hit Kerala on Monday on its normal onset date, marking the commencement of the four-month-long rainfall season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.
North India is likely to get "above normal" rainfall, while central India and the southern peninsula will receive "normal" rainfall. However, east and northeast India are likely to receive less rainfall than other parts of the country, according to the IMD.
"The southwest monsoon has made an onset over Kerala," IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra declared as widespread rainfall occurred in the southern state during the past two days.
The country receives 75 per cent of its rainfall from the southwest monsoon during June to September. It is not only crucial for farming in the country, but also for replenishing the reservoirs, and more importantly to the economy which is still largely dependent on agriculture.
Overall, the country will receive normal precipitation with a Long Period Average of 102% with an error margin of plus or minus 4%, M Rajeevan, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said at a media briefing on the second long range forecast for the 2020 southwest monsoon rainfall.
In its first long range forecast for monsoon 2020 released in April, the IMD had said the rainfall will be 100% of the LPA.
There is 41% possibility that the country will receive "normal" rainfall and just 5% possibility of "deficient" rainfall, Rajeevan added.
The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 103% of its LPA during July and 97% of LPA during August with a model error of plus or minus 9%.
The LPA for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm. LPA between 90-96 % is considered as "normal" rainfall. It is considered as "above normal" if the rainfall range is between 104-110 %; "excess" if it crosses 110% and "deficient" if it is below 90%.
Private forecaster Skymet Weather had on May 30 declared the arrival of monsoon, but the IMD had differed, saying the conditions were not ripe.