news Wednesday, November 26, 2014 - 05:30
The News Minute| April 24, 2014| 9.30 am IST AIADMKStrength- Mass reach out by AIADMK supporters and tie ups with small, yet significant community groups will help AIADMK. Women voters have traditionally voted for AIADMK. The welfare schemes and sops doled out by the AIADMK government will help the party. Jayalalithaa’s fervent call that this is one chance for a Tamil Nadu leader to play a central role in national politics may find some resonance. Weakness- Over confidence. The absence of allies will affect Jayalalithaa. If a significant chunk of the Muslim vote bank has deserted Jayalalithaa as claimed by the DMK, this will be a major problem. Jayalalithaa seems to have underestimated the NDA factor till the end. A case of waking up too late? The power crisis which the state is facing has created anger against the state. DMKStrength- DMK strong point is its core voter bank and strong mobilization under Stalin. Minority dalit and Muslim votes being pulled towards the DMK. There are many high profile candidates in the fray like Dayanidhi Maran, A Raja and T R Baalu who have left no stone unturned in their own constituencies. Weakness- Not been able to mobilize strong opinion against Jayalalithaa. Stalin’s brother Alagiri seems determined to make DMK lose in all Southern districts. Alagiri’s call will affect the DMK vote bank to an extent, however small. Urban voters may distance themselves from DMK following charges of corruption. (But looks like A Raja has all chances to win).It’s a decent run for DMK if they can win 10 seats. NDAStrength- Multi party alliance will help in certain pockets, especially delta regions of Tamil Nadu. Modi has been invoked by everyone in the alliance, and will fetch some votes in urban areas. Vijayakanth and Ramadoss will bring in the Vanniyar votes. In many constituencies like Kanyakumari, Coimbatore, Tirupur, Pollachi, Viruddhanagar and Thenkasi- the NDA has chances of winning. Weakness- Too many cooks spoil the broth! There has been no co-ordination between the NDA constituents. In fact it is no secret that Vijayakanth and Ramadoss loathe each other and are vying for the same Vanniyar vote bank. Ramadoss was not even campaigning for the NDA, till the end of polls. In many key constituencies, NDA may just split votes, but the contest is still largely between AIADMK and DMK. CONGRESSStrength- We are thinking. Vasanth Kumar, the Congress candidate in Kanyakumari and Karti Chidambaram from Sivagangai are the only Congress candidates who can win a decent number of votes. If Congress’ gamble of making Vasanth Kumar, a Hindu Nadar it’s candidate in Kanyakumari works, it would be nothing less of a miracle. Weakness- The Dravidian parties over the past two years have systematically campaigned against the Congress on various issues including anti-incumbency and the Union government’s policy regarding Sri Lanka.

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