Lok Sabha 2019: LDF suffered defeat in 71 Assembly segments that it won in 2016

It has come as a rude shock for the Left front that it suffered defeats in Assembly segments from where prominent state leaders of the party have been regularly winning in Assembly polls.
Lok Sabha 2019: LDF suffered defeat in 71 Assembly segments that it won in 2016
Lok Sabha 2019: LDF suffered defeat in 71 Assembly segments that it won in 2016
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An anti-BJP wave coupled with the consolidation of Hindu votes in favour of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) proved costly for the CPI(M)-lead Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala, as it managed to secure only a single seat in the state – Alappuzha – out of the total 20 seats during the Lok Sabha polls.

While political pundits and journalists have analysed various reasons for the dismal performance put up by the ruling Communist front, it is important to note that the LDF has suffered major blows in 71 out of the 91 Assembly segments that it had won during the 2016 Assembly elections, following which it came to power in the state.

While it is a known fact by now that the LDF was defeated in its traditional Lok Sabha bastions in the state, such as Alathur, Palakkad, and Attingal, it also comes as a rude shock for the Left front that it has suffered defeats in the Assembly constituencies from where prominent state leaders of the party have been regularly winning during Assembly polls.

Citadel held for 49 years, lost

Take for instance the Kuthuparamba Assembly constituency, which is part of the Vadakara Parliamentary constituency in Kozhikode district. The constituency has been held by LDF for 49 years, and in fact was represented by Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan thrice – between 1970 and 1977; 1977 and 1980; and 1991 and 1996. In 2016, state Minister of Health and Social Welfare KK Shailaja of the CPI(M) won here by a margin of 12,291 votes.

However, this time around, UDF’s K Muraleedharan, who won Vadakara by a margin of 84,663 votes, got 4,133 votes more than CPI(M) candidate P Jayarajan in the Assembly segment. Although this is the only Assembly segment in the Vadakara constituency where the CPI(M) candidate managed to give any competition to Congress man Muraleedharan, it was a disappointing defeat nonetheless. Even in 2014, the Vadakara seat had been won by UDF – but in Koothuparamba alone, LDF’s AN Shamseer polled 4,725 votes more than UDF candidate Mullappally Ramachandran.

The Alathur and Kozhikode decimation

In Alathur Parliamentary seat in Palakkad district, UDF’s Ramya Haridas, who polled a total of 5,33,815 votes, has defeated two-time MP PK Biju of the LDF, who polled a total of 3,74,847 votes. Her margin: a mammoth 1,58,968 votes.

This comes as a shock considering LDF won six out of seven Assembly segments in Alathur in 2016 Assembly polls – Tarur, Chittur, Nenmara, Alathur, Chelakkara, and Kunnamkulam. This time however, the LDF has lost all of them.

As far as the Kozhikode Lok Sabha Constituency is concerned, LDF managed to win all Assembly segments except for Kozhikode South in 2016. But in the 2019 polls, UDF’s MK Raghavan secured a thumping victory over CPI(M)’s A Pradeep Kumar in every single Assembly segment, and won by a margin of 85,225 votes in the Kozhikode Lok Sabha seat.

The Red Fort breached

The Kollam district of Kerala has always been considered as the ‘Red Fort’ – a Communist stronghold – and during the 2016 Assembly elections, LDF managed to win an all the seven constituencies in Kollam, including the Kundara constituency, from where J Mercy Kutty Amma, the Fisheries Minister of Kerala, won; and the Kollam constituency, from where Malayalam actor Mukesh won.

But in 2019, UDF’s NK Premachandran, the sitting MP from the constituency managed a clean sweep in all the constituencies and defeated LDF’s KN Balagopal by a huge margin of 1,48,856 votes.

Although the defeat of Palakkad’s two time MP, MB Rajesh of the LDF, against UDF’s VK Sreekandan, came as a shock to everyone including the opposition, it is to be noted that MB Rajesh managed to obtain a lead in most of the constituencies that were won by LDF candidates in the 2016 Assembly elections. It was the votes secured by Sreekandan in the constituencies of Pattambi and Palakkad that gave him the edge over Rajesh.

Veena George, who was the LDF’s candidate in the much talked about Pathanamthitta constituency, was also a sitting MLA of the Aranmula Assembly constituency in Pathanamthitta district. However, Veena, who managed to win from the Aranmula constituency by a margin of 7,646 votes in 2016, lost to UDF’s Anto Antony from her own Assembly constituency by a margin of 6,593 votes.

According to political analysts, the results witnessed in Kerala can neither be said to be an anti-LDF outcome nor a pro-UDF outcome. It is believed that there was a “fear psychosis” among the minorities in the state about the growth of a third front in the state, and the votes for the Congress can be seen as a vote to keep the BJP out of power in the Centre.

The other major argument that has been raised is the impact of the Sabarimala issue. While one section of analysts argue that the CPI(M)’s stand on implementing the SC verdict of allowing women of all ages to enter the Sabarimala temple has hurt the religious sentiments of the Hindus, because of which they experienced a shift in the Hindu votes, the other side argues that if this was the case, then how come BJP’s K Surendran came in third place in Pathanamthitta, a place where he lead countless protests to “protect the beliefs of the devotees.”

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