The weekend comes with a tiny bit of solace for Kerala, that has been reeling following the floods, as the state makes baby steps to normalcy. The rainfall has receded a little. People have started putting out pictures of sunny days and courtyards drying up, hoping they would last. Not a drastic change and not everywhere. There are still places, houses, roads where people wade neck-deep or go to an upper floor and wait for help.
But the weather is looking better. If you look at the rainfall forecast put out by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for every district, heavy rainfall is expected in most parts of Kerala. “It wouldn’t be extremely heavy like it had been four or five days ago. We have just put out red alerts as a warning to places that are already flooded. Even a moderately heavy rainfall in those places would not do good,” says a scientist at the IMD office in Thiruvananthapuram.
As of Saturday, 3 districts – Pathanamthitta, Ernakulam, Idukki - have been given red alert (warning to take action). Alappuzha, Kottayam, Thrissur, Palakkad, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad and Kannur have been given orange alert - meaning, be prepared. Kasargode and Kollam have been given yellow alert – to watch out. Thiruvananthapuram is green, which means there’s no warning, and only light to moderate rainfall is expected. Lakshwadeep is also looking green.
“There is no alarming situation as of now. But the flooded areas and the isolated parts in the central, south and north Kerala areas should still be alert. If we watch any high activity - qualitatively, not quantitatively - in a particular area, we warn the respective district collector. It’s called the ‘now-cast’ which is being done every three hours,” the scientist adds.
The IMD also predicts that heavy rain accompanied with gusty wind speed touching 60kmph is expected in Kollam, Alappuzha, Pathanamthitta, Idukki, Ernakulam, Thrissur and Palakkad districts. Depending on the cloud movement and the speed of wind, the IMD determines which districts are going to be affected and alerts them.
According to the IMD, Munnar received the highest rainfall in the state with 105.2mm, followed by Peermade also in Idukki district, which recorded 104mm of rainfall. In Wayanad Mananthavady experienced 61 mm of rainfall, while Vythiri recorded 55mm.
The low-pressure area that had formed in Odisha and resulted in this sudden spell of heavy rainfall in Kerala has now moved, the scientist says. “It is now being formed at the northwest part of the Bay of Bengal.”
Trouble comes when these low-pressure areas are formed near Kerala – which happens rarely, like it did for the Ockhi cyclone – or else in Odisha. “But the monsoon is still active.”
Not a huge relief perhaps – especially for those still struggling in the waters around their homes – but whatever little hope the weather brings is something to cling onto. And if the IMD forecast becomes true, the rains should show mercy in a day. There are no red alerts predicted for Sunday, and on Monday the state is expected to receive light to moderate rains.