With the exception of Karnataka, the recently concluded Lok Sabha 2019 polls show that the south still largely remains a challenge to the BJP. The results in Karnataka are not surprising because the BJP had emerged as the single largest party in the 2018 Assembly elections. However, the party fell short of a majority, allowing the Congress and the JD(S) to forge a rocky post-poll alliance and form the government.
In the rest of the south, the BJP's best performance has been in Telangana where the party has managed to win four seats. It previously had only one MP from the state. Significantly, all four candidates won the polls with a comfortable margin of over 50,000 votes each and this includes the big upset - the defeat of Kavitha Kalvakuntla, the Chief Minister's daughter, from Nizamabad. When it comes to vote share, the BJP took 19.45% of the pie. Telangana was formed in June 2014, after the last General Elections, and it's therefore not possible to deduce an increase or decrease in vote share in the state.
In Andhra Pradesh, the other Telugu state, it was the YSRCP all the way, with the BJP getting only 0.96% of the vote share. The TDP, which had been in alliance with the BJP till 2018, suffered a massive setback and won only 3 seats out of the total 25. In 2014, the BJP's vote share in united Andhra Pradesh was 8.52%, but they were in an alliance with the winning front comprising the TDP and supported by Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena.
In Kerala, the BJP is still struggling to find a firm foothold, despite the high voltage and divisive campaign around the Sabarimala Temple issue. The party came third in 19 out of 20 constituencies, bagging second place only in Thiruvananthapuram which was at the heart of its protests against the LDF for implementing the Supreme Court order allowing women of all age-groups into the temple.
Though there was palpable anger among Hindus against the ruling Left government for its stance on the issue, they chose to vote for the UDF rather than the BJP. The UDF sweep of the state, which handed a paltry 1 seat to the LDF, is also the result of the consolidation of minority votes. The desire to see a secular government at the Centre appears to have spurred voters to choose the UDF over the Left, which has a negligible presence in national politics. With all the rabble rousing and violence, the BJP's vote share went up from 10.33% in 2014 to 12.93% in 2019; Kerala remains a state where the BJP has never won a Lok Sabha seat. Meanwhile, Rahul Gandhi won Wayanad with the biggest ever margin that Kerala has seen, even as he lost his Amethi seat to the BJP's Smriti Irani.
In Tamil Nadu, the DMK alliance swept the Lok Sabha polls as was only to be expected. Tamil Nadu has been simmering with resentment against the governments at the state and central level ever since Jayalalithaa's death in December 2016. Bucking the national trend, Prime Minister Modi has been a visibly unpopular leader in Tamil Nadu and the BJP has been accused of running a puppet government in the state. The national party had gone into polls with the ruling AIADMK which was reduced to just 1 seat although it had swept the elections in 2014. Not only did the BJP lose the Kanyakumari seat which it had won in 2014, its vote share in the state also went down - from 5.56% to 3.66%.
In the union territory of Puducherry, the Congress wrested away the seat from the AINRC which is part of the BJP-led NDA front. In 2014, the Congress had fought elections in Puducherry along with the two Dravidian parties and came second to the AINRC. This time, going into the election with the DMK alliance, the Congress managed to get 56.27% of the votes. The AINRC got 31.36%.
The 2019 election results once again show how the majority of the south differs from the rest of the country when it comes to political priorities. The BJP had marched into the electoral campaign on the plank of nationalism, using the Pulwama attack and the Balakot strikes to project PM Modi as a strong and decisive leader. Abandoning the "development" agenda which formed the core of its campaign in 2014, the BJP adopted an anti-Pakistan rhetoric which seems to have found resonance north of the Vindhyas, placating the damage done by measures such as demonetisation. In the south, however, it is clear that the BJP needs to fight its electoral battles on real issues rather than nationalism if it is to make significant electoral gains in the future. Even the BJP's welfare programmes, irrespective of the success rate, were more popular outside the south and to voters down here, the party's image was mostly that of Hindutva.
That said, it's imperative that southern regional parties sit up and take the BJP and its strategies seriously. The party's Hindutva agenda may not have as many takers in the south as it does in the north but world-over, we're seeing a shift towards right wing politics and it would be foolish to assume that voters in south India will never be swayed by it. As it is, the BJP managed to push the Congress in Kerala to adopt a pro-Hindutva stance on Sabarimala in a bid to keep its voter base intact. The BJP's tactic may have ended up benefiting its arch rival but that does not mean that this is the end of that road.
The BJP is now the largest party in the south with 29 MPs. The Congress has 28 seats (including Puducherry), followed by the DMK with 23 seats and the YSRCP with 22. The party's vote share, excluding Karnataka where it secured 51.38% of the votes, may not be much as of now. However, if the BJP has proved anything in the run up to the 2019 elections, it is that its leaders are ready to fight hard and fight dirty if necessary. Southern regional parties who value secular principles cannot afford to be caught napping when the bugle is sounded in another five years.